Analysis of the Different Reactions to Kosovo's Declaration of Independence

Today is 21 February 2008: four days after Kosovo declared independence from Serbia without waiting to be recognized first. The whole world, and especially the Balkans, is watching things in Kosovo very carefully and now we see reactions that were initially expected - even before 17 February 2008. Spain, Romania, Slovakia, Cyprus and Greece oppose Kosovo's declaration of independence; Serbia, Russia and China firmly oppose it; USA, UK, France, Germany, Slovenia, Afghanistan and Turkey recognize it; Bulgaria, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina have not decided what their positions are yet. The question is whether those reactions are justified or not.

If we try to see every single country's concerns within its territory and globally, we will see that each of them is right in its current decision.

First of all, Kosovo has been part of Serbia up to now despite U.N. and NATO forces' presence since the end of the war in Kosovo in 1999. In politics no government is going to give up part of its territory for no reasons. Moreover, Kosovo is considered by the Serbians the cradle of the Serbian civilization, so apart from territorial rights, the Serbians claim to have historic rights on this province as well no matter how inconsistent such an argument is. Furthermore, according to the U.N. Charter every U.N. member's territory is intact unless there is unanimity, so this is another thing the Serbians are using right now for the sake of Kosovo's remaining part of Serbia.

Russia and China, two of the five permanent members in the U.N. Security Council firmly oppose Kosovo's declaration of independence because of expected separatist sentiments in the breakaway regions of South Ossetia, Abkhazia (Russia) and Taiwan (China). Recognizing Kosovo from their part would mean that they will have to recognize those provinces as well unless, they show evident hypocrisy. If it was not for [those provinces' negative sentiments toward them], nobody can predict what their reaction would have been. Russia and Serbia have been allies for a long time but Serbians' electing west-oriented president [Boris Tadic] is never considered a good move from Moscow.

There is a group of other European countries that oppose Kosovo's declaration of independence as well. Like Russia and China, they have fears of separatism within their territories as well. Romania and Slovakia are concerned about such possibility among their Hungarian minorities whereas Spain already knows about its Basque region's wish to govern itself regardless of Madrid.

European countries, whose state of the economy is in a good state compared to that of the Balkans as a whole, almost immediately recognized Kosovo. Those countries are UK, France, Germany, Denmark and Italy. And, while in the latter there is a political crisis which is followed by the dissolution of Prime Minister Romano Prodi's government, there are no fears of separatism within the country which gives the Italian government the convenience to recognize Kosovo as an independent country. Furthermore, those countries are far away from the Balkans so the worst thing that they can expect is tension in front of their embassies in Serbia which unfortunately already happened to the Slovenian (because of Slovenia's current leadership of the European Union), to the Albanian and to the U.S. embassies.

Let us look at the way things are going on in the Balkans these days. What is each country's decision on the Kosovo issue and is there anything acceptable in it?! This is a rather interesting question and first of all we have to find out how the Balkan peoples feel about an independent Kosovo. After reading a lot of opinions in the newspapers' forums and also on Youtube, I found out that the Balkan peoples are divided on this issue on two groups and those two groups are religious - on the one side we have Orthodox Christians, and on the other side we have Muslims. Basically, each of those two groups is defending the people with which they have common religion. The Balkans have historically been a hotbed of nationalism, as well as ethnic and religious conflicts and it seems that these sentiments are still brewing.

However, on governmental level such passionate issues are, fortunately, not determining. Good examples are Bulgaria, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Those three countries have not come to a decision yet whether to recognize Kosovo or not. I believe that they have a reasonable explanation to take their time. First of all, Bosnia-Herzegovina is an unstable federation - unstable because of the region of Serbian Republic where the Bosnian Serbs are. The latter are rather agitated because of Kosovo's declaration of independence and threatened to do the same thing as Kosovo had done on 17 February 2008. As to the Bulgarian and Macedonian governments, I believe that they have made the best decision - wait in order to see whether the plan "Ahtisaari" works and then take a decision. It looks like that they use their minds and not what their people say because not always the people are correct. What would have happened if Bulgaria and Macedonia had been among the first states to have made a decision? Their names would have constantly been mentioned in the media since Kosovo's initial intentions last week. However, instead of searching for popularity, Sofia and Skopje are waiting for their turn - not to be the first and not to be the last countries to recognize or not to recognize Kosovo's declaration of independence. I believe that it makes sense because they would not want their decisions to be one of the most remembered.

Bulgaria and Macedonia are presented with yet another delicate situation in their decision whether or not to recognize Kosovo, as the countries have their own minority population - Turkish and Albanian respectively. Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev recently said that Bulgaria was economically vulnerable, most probably referring to the commonly accepted fact that wherever there is a vulnerable economy, there is a higher possibility of separatist sentiment. However, in terms of separatism, Bulgaria is in times better situation than is Macedonia. While, in 2001 there was unrest in Macedonia's western territory where there is an Albanian population, Bulgaria has never had any problems with its Turkish minority in Rhodope Mointain.

Greece's and Cyprus' decisions not to recognize Kosovo is relevent because recognizing Kosovo would most likely mean that they would also have to recognize the Turkish Cypriot Republic. Albania's and Turkey's recognition of Kosovo was a move that was expected by the Balkan peoples. However, I believe that Ankara's decision was not well reconsidered because its eastern territory's population is Kurdish-dominated and the Turks recently had clashes with them.

The Future of Kosovo to be Decided Soon

The Serbian province of Kosovo, with capital Pristina, is expected to declare independence on 17 February 2008. Kosovo's Albanian majority wants to separate the province from its belonging to the territory of Serbia and continue its existence as an independent country. However bright Pristina's ambitions look at first sight, the entire procedure is rather long and delicate. Even if Kosovo declares independence on 17 February 2008 and thus become an independent country, gloomy days await its people. Internationally, most EU countries and the U.S. support an independent Kosovo, but Serbia and Russia firmly oppose it. After it lost Montenegro in 2006, Serbia will not easily let another part of its territory separate from it. Belgrade already came out with a warning - if Kosovo becomes independent, there will be high taxes imposed by the Serbian government to Kosovans who would like to enter Serbia for whatever reasons. I assume that other inconveniences to Pristina will be imposed. Kosovo may be denied good relations with Serbia in terms of business and any other kind of support that is common between countries such as humanitarian aid, for example. The latter is needed in Kosovo since there is high unemployment rate, about 40% of the population, and common needs such as water and electricity are not being delivered on a permanent basis. What people who are not involved in the conflict would ask themselves in this case is why the Albanian majority in Kosovo would want independence since the living conditions are harsh. The answer lies in the 1999 war there when Serbian troops entered the province and tried to banish the Albanian population. I believe that their not wishing to be subordinate to a government whose troops tried to expatriate them is what caused their decisiveness in creating a new state.

However, not everyone in Kosovo supports a possible independence. Let us not forget the province's northern part where the majority is Serbian. Serbians are a minority in Kosovo, only 5% of the entire population, and, although they are a majority in the province's northern part, they are concerned about a possible independence which would separate them from Serbia. Moreover, although they are a majority in the province's northern part, they are concerned about possible hostilities toward them from the Albanian majority in Kosovo as a whole and that is why they see the Serbian government as their last hope.

The plan drawn by former UN envoy at the Kosovo status process negotiations Martti Ahtisaari that might be applied if Kosovo becomes independent is the least bad. If his plan is followed in an independent Kosovo, the latter will have limited arm forces, strong provisions for the Serbian minority, commitment to multicentric democracy, and any part of Kosovo's territory being denied joining another country.
At first sight this plan is terrific: Serbian minority will be satisfied and there will be multicentric democracy. Overall the entire population will be satisfied in such case. Furthermore, limited arm forces will not allow Kosovo to even try to harm any country in the region if Pristina decides to do so, not to mention the prohibition of joining any country. The latter follows an initial prediction that since Albanians are a majority in Kosovo, they would like not only to separate themselves from Serbia but also to join the country where their origins are from. Think of a bigger Albania - countries in the region would fear it and, what would be even more disturbing would be the growing Albanian population in the western part of Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia who would probably like to do the same - join Albania. Imagine the today's Albania adding Kosovo and western Macedonia - it will double in size.

However, the plan drawn by Martti Ahtisaari looks too naive to me. All those conditions that it would impose will be temporary - sooner or later Kosovo will most likely have their own army; sooner or later strong provisions for the Serbian minority will be cut; sooner or later this multicentric democracy might turn into unicentric. I base my latter interpretation on the fact that Kosovo lacks any data about its current population, not to mention the data about its proportion and about the two ethnic groups' fertility rates.

Nevertheless, no matter how many people currently live in Kosovo and what percentage of them are Albanians or Serbians, those two ethnic groups are extremely different - they speak different languages and have different religions and custom so in this regard even if Kosovo becomes independent it will be separated and there will be bigotry within its territory until there are those two ethnic groups.

That is why I strongly believe that not the entire province of Kosovo should declare independence if independence is inevitable. In order for a more stable environment in the Balkans I believe that at least northern Kosovo, where Serbians are a majority should belong to Serbia.

The Next President Has to be Determined

With the majority of the states having already voted in both the Democratic and Republican primaries and caucuses, nobody is still capable of predicting who the Democratic National Convention and the Republican National Convention will dominate to be their candidate to the general elections in November.

Republican presidential hopeful, Senator John McCain from Arizona, still has a substantial lead at this point, but the February 9 results may turn out to be the turning point of the Republican primaries when former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee having received a potential comeback push from his wins in Kansas, Washington state and Louisiana.

Meanwhile, the democratic primary race for the ticket is even tighter and it looks like it will be the superdelegates the ones, who will decide whether it is Clinton or Obama getting the nomination. Whoever of the two is the party's presidential candidate will most likely become the next president.

This is not just a prediction. It is something that people all over the world in general expect to happen. Americans can feel it, too. Nowadays in the United States of America a lot of people keep saying that "we are in the middle of a realignment". There must be something really extraordinary to happen in order for neither Clinton, nor Obama to become president.

Most Americans are not satisfied with the course of the country over the last few years: the continuous and torturing war in Iraq, the unaffordable health care for most of the American citizens, the tax cuts for the rich, the big debts that many Americans have to pay for decades for their college tuition, the foreclosures as a result of the mortgage crisis that rendered many people homeless and turn out for the banks that they will receive less money than what they have already spent in terms of mortgages.

Those are few of the issues that the Bush era will leave to America and the world. No matter what the outcome of the war in Iraq will be, the country's reputation has already been undermined by one way or another, not to mention the number of enemies this particular war has made for the U.S. The Bush administration did so well that from the former President Bill Clinton's budget surplus of hundreds of billions of dollars, it is now a deficit of about 3 trillion dollars which is rather disturbing.

Recently, former first lady, now Senator Hillary Clinton (D - New York), said that she would clean up after the Bush dynasty just like her husband had managed to clean up after President Bush's father. Her words must definitely be taken seriously since she does not lack political experience and since her husband could help her out with her presidency. What senator Clinton mostly stands for is universal health care, ending the war in Iraq and helping people with foreclosures.

Ilinois Senator Barack Obama (D - Ilinois) has pretty much the same positions as senator Clinton on most of the issues. However, what he is definitely more skillful in is his oratorical skills. This person knows how to unite the people within a country. On every debate, on every speech, he keeps saying that the United States of America is not a collection of blue, red or swing states, neither is it divided into whites, African Americans, Asian Americans, Native Americans and Latinos. Unlike Hillary Clinton, who is often silent and passive when it comes to party affiliation, Barack Obama keeps saying that Republicans and Democrats should work together for the country's well being.

Overall, what we see here is two persons who can unite the American people. They look like they are the most determined presidential candidates in this race. The media show it and the people see it every day primary after primary and caucus after caucus.

In my opinion, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama should be on the same ticket for the general election. This is a most determining move not only for both of them but for the people as well - for the people not only on the territory of the United States of America but for the people all over the world as well. There are several reasons why I find this to be the case.

First of all, in order to win, a candidate must be strong on the issues. Both Clinton and Obama are strong on every major issue, as already mentioned. The next step toward winning elections is to unite the people to vote for you. In terms of races and ethnicities, both Obama and Clinton unite whites and, while Obama has a strong support from African Americans, Hillary Clinton can praise herself with such support when it comes to the Latino vote. This is a great percentage of the U.S. population. Of course, some of those people will vote for the Republican nominees but even if we assume that Republicans will vote for Republicans and Democrats will vote for Democrats in the general elections, this time there are about twice as much registered Democrats than the people who are registered as Republicans.

It turns out to be a rather beneficial race in terms of current events for the Democratic Party in this election for president and this time there can be no excuses for an outcome other than a win for the Democrats. Whoever wins the party's nomination would better choose his or her opponent as a running mate not only because of the stakes involved in this election, but also for the sake of his or her career. According to the expectations, either Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will be president for two terms and if vice-president is his or her current opponent, this vice-president will have greater chances to win the Democratic Party's nomination and as a result of this the presidential elections. So, it is up to Obama and Clinton to decide whether they will eventually make a remarkable duo in the country's executive branch and change the course of USA and the world toward a better economic and diplomatic future.